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Old 13th October 2008, 10:34 AM   #1
Ben
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Default How will the 'crisis' affect the US election?

I asked on the blog how the crisis will affect us all, but I'm also curious to know, does the financial crisis in the states benefit either candidate at the moment?
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Old 13th October 2008, 10:51 AM   #2
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I'd think this kind of crisis will always harm the government in office, that is the Republicans in the US (=McCain) and the Socialists in Spain (=Zapatero), thus their opponents will probably benefit from this.

Of course this is a very simplistic analysis.

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Old 13th October 2008, 11:43 AM   #3
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I think an economic crisis can sometimes help a government, at least in the short term. If the crisis is severe then the electorate just wants the government to sort it out first, and then blame them for it later. The electorate almost rallys round the government, as if it were at war. This is what happened to John Major's government in 1992. The UK was suffering a terrible recession but the electorate appeared to think that changing the government would only bring further disruption.

Ironically the recession came to a halt when the pound fell out of the ERM, so it was in fact a Hungarian speculator (George Soros) who got the UK out of that recession. Almost overnight the UK economy started what would be 15 years of uninterrupted growth. However that wasn't enough to save Major's government from a landslide defeat at the next general election in 1997.

Of course this doesn't really apply to the US elections so much because the current government will end its tenure regardless. I understand that the financial crisis might help Obama since he has a greater grasp of financial issues, and can appear more competent than McCain on these matters. However US politics seems to defy all logic anyway.
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Old 13th October 2008, 12:14 PM   #4
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The financial crisis bodes well for Obama since the crisis is attributed by many to the Republicans for their aversion to a socialist government and more specifically a government which does not interfere at all with the actions of the free (unsupervised) markets. This is evidenced by the solid lead Obama has had in the polls for 3 weeks. The minority whip (a Republican) of the Senate Finance Committee opposes McCain's solution to the financial crisis, and has gone public with his position. So the crisis will serve Obama.
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Old 13th October 2008, 02:28 PM   #5
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Dunno about the US but Brown will turn this to his advantage - he is already setting himself up as the man that saved the world banking system with his plan. Its a bit Like Thatchers Falklands - if he pulls it off a very unpopular party will get re-elected

Please note - I am not saying anyone could do better - I reckon after so long EVERY party runs out of steamb and runs up enough scantal and corruption not to get re-elected and the cycle starts again

As my grandad said = "Vote for who you like you always finish up with a government"

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Old 13th October 2008, 03:29 PM   #6
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I also think it serves Obama better.

His numbers in the polls have risen since this crisis began, as the public largely realises that a Democratic administration could handle this a lot better than a Republican one. I believe that the fact that the national debt is now the largest in history has scared everyone. They've run out of digits on the official board which records the amount. During Clinton's eight year tenure the country actually recorded a surplus.

The public is appalled that the current administration has let things get so bad. John McCain is, rightly or wrongly, linked to the current administration even though he claims to be a "maverick". He has admitted that economic matters are not his strong suit.

- the preceding remarks have been brought to you by a life-long democrat
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Old 13th October 2008, 08:20 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legazpi View Post
Ironically the recession came to a halt when the pound fell out of the ERM, so it was in fact a Hungarian speculator (George Soros) who got the UK out of that recession. Almost overnight the UK economy started what would be 15 years of uninterrupted growth. However that wasn't enough to save Major's government from a landslide defeat at the next general election in 1997.
I understand that the financial crisis might help Obama since he has a greater grasp of financial issues, and can appear more competent than McCain on these matters. However US politics seems to defy all logic anyway.
I was struck by your mention of George Soros....as he figured rather prominently in the news over the weekend with regard to the current catastrophic situation.
I watched 2 lengthy interviews with him in which he was strongly critical of the policies of "non-interference"/"non-intervention"/"self-regulation" propounded by the current administration, policies which until now - have been fiercely advocated by McCain (McCains "current policy" continually shifts and careens; it appears to be entirely dependent upon what might have just occurred in the shifting markets ten minutes before he is questioned about his stance. His policy is no more stable than the market itself)

You say that: "I understand that the financial crisis might help Obama ......"
I'd put it another way and would say instead:
Obama WILL help the financial crisis!

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Old 15th October 2008, 03:36 AM   #8
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The financial crisis bodes well for Obama since the crisis is attributed by many to the Republicans for their aversion to a socialist government and more specifically a government which does not interfere at all with the actions of the free (unsupervised) markets. This is evidenced by the solid lead Obama has had in the polls for 3 weeks. The minority whip (a Republican) of the Senate Finance Committee opposes McCain's solution to the financial crisis, and has gone public with his position. So the crisis will serve Obama.
I agree with this assessment. but one additional point I find muy interesante.....that part about republicans being averse to socialist gov't. um.....these bailouts of banks and insurance companies. isn't that socialism???

absolutely, the crisis favors Obama!
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Old 15th October 2008, 03:41 AM   #9
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I agree with this assessment. but one additional point I find muy interesante.....that part about republicans being averse to socialist gov't. um.....these bailouts of banks and insurance companies. isn't that socialism???

absolutely, the crisis favors Obama!
What I wrote on the blog page was this: "How ironic that the political party which not only espouses the view of minimalist government intervention but is diametrically opposed to anything socialist, forced the US government into becoming one of the largest socialist governments with the $700 billion bail out of Wall St."
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Old 15th October 2008, 03:50 AM   #10
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What I wrote on the blog page was this: "How ironic that the political party which not only espouses the view of minimalist government intervention but is diametrically opposed to anything socialist, forced the US government into becoming one of the largest socialist governments with the $700 billion bail out of Wall St."
yep! can you say hypocrites? I can Is it November 4th yet??????
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Old 15th October 2008, 12:33 PM   #11
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What I like is that while McCain is playing offense against Obama in his red turning blue states, Obama is capturing red states without really responding to McCain's attacks and retaining all originally blue states.
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Old 15th October 2008, 02:20 PM   #12
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What I like is that while McCain is playing offense against Obama in his red turning blue states, Obama is capturing red states without really responding to McCain's attacks and retaining all originally blue states.


Look out for the Obama = Osama= Hussein=terrorism links about to be launched by the McCain/Palin camp!

What are the bets that "winker" (or a very similar word!) Palin turns up at a rally in camo gear carrying an automatic weapon before the election, and then stars as a Playboy centre-fold after the election? "Hockey Mum joins the Marines!
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Old 15th October 2008, 06:01 PM   #13
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Look out for the Obama = Osama= Hussein=terrorism links about to be launched by the McCain/Palin camp!
".....about to be"........Juanjo, you've not been keeping up with the hurling of filth, smut and smear (tho I don't blame you)

Just desserts however because McCanes scurrilous attacks have boomeranged - whilst Obamas polling numbers (for what it's worth) have steadily risen together with the regard in which he's held.
Even archly arch Conservatives (David Brooks of NY Times, for instance, as well as William Buckleys son) have "come out of the closet" in support of Obama. (If William Buckley hadn't already passed away recently - that "treason" alone would probably have done him in )
Of course McCanes choice of Sarah is testament to his bald cynicism....what can I say...it's "beyond the palin". When the "gotcha gal" is carefully unleashed to open her mouth the utter vacuousness of her platitudes and rants is stunning. I'm reminded of Peter Sellers in "Being There".....except - she's truly dangerous.....a rabble rouser for the rabid, while he was simply "not there".

Any predictions about tonight - the final debate?
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Old 15th October 2008, 09:27 PM   #14
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Only that Tina Fey will win an Emmy this year.
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Old 15th October 2008, 09:32 PM   #15
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I agree with this assessment. but one additional point I find muy interesante.....that part about republicans being averse to socialist gov't. um.....these bailouts of banks and insurance companies. isn't that socialism???

absolutely, the crisis favors Obama!
Dogma getting run over by Karma
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Old 15th October 2008, 09:34 PM   #16
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".....a I'm reminded of Peter Sellers in "Being There".....except - she's truly dangerous.....a rabble rouser for the rabid, while he was simply "not there".

Any predictions about tonight - the final debate?
Being there is a wonderful movie, funny and somewhat scary ok very scary these days.

Signed

Chancey Gardner

"The roots have to be strong during the winter"
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Old 15th October 2008, 10:15 PM   #17
Margot
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Only that Tina Fey will win an Emmy this year.

Isn't the irony delicious?:

Tina, the fake "Sarah"
A real vote-getter
Ergo: (Emmy) Winner

whilst....
The real Sarah
a voter-alienator
and bridge to oblivion
Ergo: Loser
wink 'n think: just desserts

I hope that's what will happen...otherwise I'll
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Old 15th October 2008, 10:35 PM   #18
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Any predictions about tonight - the final debate?
Obama will win

and Colin Powell will endorse Obama. that's not a prediction, I read it earlier today
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Old 15th October 2008, 10:41 PM   #19
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Obama will win

and Colin Powell will endorse Obama. that's not a prediction, I read it earlier today
Wow....Where?...ie rumour or real?
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Old 15th October 2008, 10:43 PM   #20
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Wow....Where?...ie rumour or real?
aquí está: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawren..._b_134777.html
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